The collapse of Japanese car sales in China happened faster and more severely than anticipated.
Nissan’s sales plummeted by 30%, Honda’s were cut in half, and Toyota, as the leading car manufacturer, struggled to stabilize in the tumultuous Chinese market.
Combined, the top three Japanese automakers in China couldn’t match the sales of just BYD alone.
The market share once held at 30% by Japanese cars has now slid to 14.4% last month, with expectations of hitting a new low this year.
However, on a broader scale, Japanese car sales are doing well, particularly in the United States, where Nissan and Honda experienced significant growth in the first quarter.
But shifting our focus from across the ocean to neighboring regions like Thailand reveals signs of the Japanese car market downturn in Southeast Asia.
In March, with the sales report released, emerging forces rebounded collectively, indicating a slight market recovery.
Meanwhile, the situation for Japanese automakers remained bleak:
Firstly, Honda in China suffered the most significant decline.
Dongfeng Honda’s March sales were 28,000 vehicles, down 51.5% year-on-year, while GAC Honda’s sales were 32,000 vehicles, down 50.1%.
Comparatively, Nissan’s situation wasn’t much better.
In March, Nissan sold 87,000 vehicles in China, down 32.6% year-on-year.
Lastly, Toyota, the “big boss” of the Japanese carmakers, faced similarly troubling performance.
Previously, Toyota had been able to sustain its position within the Japanese group by drawing resources from its “siblings.”
“I can’t beat BYD, let alone Nissan and Honda,” lamented a netizen on behalf of Toyota.
Indeed, last year, Toyota managed to maintain its foothold through various measures, with sales only slightly declining by 1.7%.
However, in March this year, the launch of the new Camry model failed to revive sales.
Guangzhou Toyota only sold 55,300 vehicles in March, a 32% decline in sales on par with Nissan.
FAW Toyota has not yet released its sales figures, but yesterday it announced a subsidy of 2 billion for vehicle replacement, with a maximum benefit of 16,000 yuan.
From this perspective, FAW Toyota’s sales in March were also likely less than ideal.
Now, a simple calculation reveals that the Chinese automotive industry has reached a critical moment:
BYD sold 301,631 vehicles in March, while the combined sales of the top three Japanese automakers, excluding FAW Toyota’s undisclosed performance, totaled 202,300 vehicles, falling short of BYD’s figures by 100,000 vehicles.
Even with a 20% increase in sales from the same period last year, the combined sales of the top three Japanese automakers still do not match BYD’s.
Why did the top three Japanese automakers experience a comprehensive collapse in March?
Looking at the external environment faced by Japanese automakers, the Chinese market has become highly competitive, especially with BYD’s assertion of “electricity cheaper than fuel,” triggering a vigorous price war that Japanese cars are no longer competitive in compared to domestic models.
For example, Nissan’s entire year’s sales in 2022 relied on the Sylphy model, which could be discounted by more than 70,000 yuan or even lower, holding its ground against the “998 Qin.”
However, facing the “798 Qin,” it immediately struggled:
The collapse of the A-class sedan market has compounded Nissan’s problems, exacerbating the decline in sales for models like the “three-cylinder Xuan Yi.”
The changing external market environment, combined with the slow internal transformation of Japanese automakers, particularly regarding their latest products, is evident with Toyota.
The failure of the BZ4X and BZ3 electric models has now been followed by the entire series of Camry models equipped with the 8155 chip, marking the end of an era where hybrid models cost 8,000 yuan more than gasoline models.
On the night of the new Camry launch, netizens quickly compared it to domestic new energy vehicles, drawing sharp criticism.
Netizens lamented that without domestic cars, Toyota might not even include a radio in the center console.
Therefore, the once stable Japanese automakers, now playing with fire, are exhibiting the following performance compared to domestic models:
Expensive to buy, expensive to use, and not cost-effective in the second-hand market.
People often lament that electric vehicles do not retain their value, while gasoline vehicles like the Lingzhen and Camry do. However, this situation has already changed.
For example, the 1.5L CVT Lingzhen model, with a guided price of 113,800 yuan in 2022, could only be discounted by 23,000 yuan at the beginning of the year, but by the end of the year, the discount had increased to over 40,000 yuan.
Considering the purchase tax, the price of a car was less than 80,000 yuan, resulting in a loss of 18,000 yuan in a year, making the talk of value retention meaningless.
The old Camry’s selling price dropped by over 20,000 yuan in a year.
In the entire process of buying, using, and reselling cars, Japanese automakers have lost their overall cost-effectiveness. The barrier has been breached, leading to collapse.
This decline was already evident last month when Nissan and Honda announced plans to cut production capacity.
Nissan’s production capacity was cut by 30%, mirroring its sales decline. Honda, which suffered the most significant decline, was more optimistic, planning a 20% reduction.
Neither company directly denied the reports, and the specific details of the production capacity reductions are still unclear.
Last month, Japanese overall market share in China dropped to 14.4%, and this year, it may hit a new low.
However, the performance of Japanese automakers in the U.S. market is the opposite of what is seen in China.
The advantage in North America is still there, but the “backyard” is under siege.
Toyota and Honda were the first to announce their first-quarter sales performance in the American market, showing excellent growth for both companies.
In the first quarter of 2024, Toyota (including Lexus) delivered more than 565,000 vehicles in the U.S., an increase of more than 20% year-on-year.
Honda delivered approximately 339,000 vehicles during the same period, an increase of 17.3% year-on-year.
Both companies also showed good results in their